Joel Sherman has Mets' marketing critique backwards

The Post's Joel Sherman lays out the Mets' likely offseason strategy to sell 2011 tickets as follows:

1) Hire a new general manager and manager...

2) Systematically leak how great Johan Santana, Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are doing physically over the winter...

3) Oversell the one positive from the 2010 season: the rookie class/breakout components...

Sherman's piece mostly focuses on a critique of the third item, arguing that popular new players such as Ike Davis should not be untouchable for marketing purposes if trading them will help the team. But if the Mets really want to avoid alienating their fans for a change, they should change their thinking regarding item #2 - and stop encouraging unrealistic expectations when it comes to injuries.

In January, Met fans were surprised and disappointed to learn that Carlos Beltran was undergoing knee surgery. Even worse, he might not be ready for the start of the season. Throughout the preseason and the first part of the regular season, reports kept changing as to when Beltran would return - late April, mid-May, maybe even the All-Star break.

As time went on, the story evolved to when Beltran would be able to resume "baseball activities." Media and fans became frustrated with Beltran's lack of progress. Those fans who believe that Beltran is less likely to play through injuries had new ammunition.

When Beltran finally returned after the All-Star break, manager Jerry Manuel raised expectations by putting Beltran back in centerfield and batting him cleanup despite the fact that Beltran was clearly not ready for either.

The Mets were 48-40 when Beltran returned to the lineup. Since then, they have gone 22-33. The Mets' collapse is far from all Beltran's fault. But it would have been better for both the team and Beltran if the Mets had said from the start that he probably wouldn't be back before the All-Star break, and once he returned, he was not going to be 100%.

Met fans have been burned so many times waiting for players to return from injury that the biggest marketing mistake the Mets can make is to try to burn them again by touting a quick return of Johan Santana.

Already we are hearing conflicting reports about when Santana will start "throwing" and when he will start "pitching" and when he will finally return. The truth is that nobody knows, and the main thing that nobody knows is how effective Santana will be when he returns.

The Mets' position should be that they hope to have Santana back by the All-Star break. From what has been reported, that is probably optimistic, especially having Santana back at full strength. But such a position tells fans and media right up front that the Mets are planning to play a significant portion of 2011 without Santana.

Rather than raise the fans expectations only to disappoint them yet again, the Mets will be obliged to come up with a plan B - competing without their ace.

No one is more of a competitor on the Mets than Santana, but if the Mets start fudging his return date, they run the risk of making Santana look like yet another Met who can't quite make it back on the field.

Of course, the new GM will have to do a better job than Omar Minaya of coming up with a plan B. Minaya's initial replacement for Beltran in the outfield rotation was Gary Matthews Jr. When Daniel Murphy, then the starting first baseman, got hurt in spring training, Minaya and Jerry Manuel's initial plan B was Mike Jacobs.

As for trading the young players, I agree with Sherman that nobody should be untouchable. But it's one thing for the Mets to realize that Davis is no Jason Heyward - there's still no point in trading him unless the other team still buys into the hype. Otherwise, you end up with a deal along the lines of once-hyped Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.

Says Sherman about Davis:

What do you think will be his best year, something like .275 with 30 homers? That is good. But it probably never makes him one of the 10 best first basemen in the game.

Yes, but .275 and 30 homers would make him the cleanup hitter on the Mets. And most of the players that Sherman suggests as stopgap alternatives for Davis have no shot at 30 homers. Lyle Overbay has hit more than 20 homers just once - and his career high is 22. Adam LaRoche hit more than 30 homers once, back in 2006. And both Overbay and LaRoche have generally played in ballparks far more homer-friendly than Citi Field.

Hubie Brooks was once a popular young player, but it made sense to trade him when the Mets had a chance to get Gary Carter before the 1985 season. But unless the Mets get an offer they really can't refuse, I would hold on to the young players. Better to oversell the young players than the seriously injured veterans.

Kanye West, the Jets, and Ines Sainz, the sports "reporter"

I'm still too peeved to write about the Yankees' Arlington meltdown this weekend (I'll write on it later, when I'm less irate!), so I'll stick with some other topics I found of interest this weekend.

I watched a bunch of the MTV Music Awards; partly to see Eminem perform "Not Afraid" and partly to see how Taylor Swift and Kanye West would act. Taylor wrote and sang some whiny song that put me half-asleep halfway through. And she was onstage, barefoot! Would you want to be barefoot on the same stage where Snooki and The Situation were? Not me!

I think while Kanye was rude last year, bum-rushing the stage during Swift's moment, he was also right that Beyonce's "Single Ladies" video was one of the greatest videos of all time. One year later, "Single Ladies" is still being parodied, while who remembers Swift's video except her hardcore fans.

Anyhow, in the show's finale, Kanye did a brand-new, very catchy song called "Runaway," where he offers toasts to the d-bags, a-holes, and other assorted miscreants of the world (himself included, of course!) And the worlds were all spelled out in the song -- no bleeps for the chorus, even though I don't even want to spell them out in the blog. Come to think of it, Squawker Jon, Kanye's toast could be the new Mets theme song!

2010 MTV Video Music Awards - More VMA Video

Anyhow, whenever you leave the audience singing the chorus of a song that nobody's heard before, you've won. So that match goes to Kanye West.

* * *

I recently started watching "Hard Knocks," so I''m digging the New York Jets these days. (Rex Ryan is a new hero of mine!) Then I heard about the latest controversy regarding the team. Ines Sainz, a Mexican TV sports reporter, complained that the Jets were giving her a little too much attention on the sidelines, and in the locker room, at this weekend's practice.

Sainz is a woman who bills herself as "the hottest sports reporter in Mexico." Her Twitter page looks more like one for a bikini model than a sports reporter. And she showed up at Jets practice in skin-tight jeans and a low-cut top -- an outfit more appropriate for a nightclub than the sidelines. Now she is shocked, shocked that the Jets apparently made catcalls at her. Gee, who'da thunk it?

She also seemed shocked to find out that, yes, players are naked in the locker room, tweeting:

“I die of embarrassment! I am in the locker room of the Jets waiting for Mark Sanchez while trying not to look to anywhere!”

What, were the players supposed to have covered up on her account? C'mon now.

Yes, the Jets should have acted professionally around her, and their reported behavior was inappropriate, and should be dealt with. But this is also a two-way street. Perhaps if Sainz dressed more appropriately for her job (here's another one of her outfits, while she touches a player), and seemed interested in acting more like a real reporter than a model, the players would have taken her more seriously.

What do you think? Tell us about it!

Brett Favre and Roger Clemens: Are they the same person?

I was watching last night's New Orleans Saints-Minnesota Vikings game, and the media's Brett Favre worship drove me to write this on Facebook (click here to friend me): "Is there anybody more insufferable, more self-aggrandizing in the NFL than Brett Favre? That is all."

I got a lot of positive responses to that status update, and I also got people "liking" this subsequent comment on Favre: "He's like Roger Clemens with a Mississippi drawl, instead of a Texas accent."

Anyhow, I expanded my rant into this article for The Faster Times, "Do Brett Favre and Roger Clemens Share the Same Brain?" Check it out. And while you're there, also check out my article about the three Mets who skipped out on going to Walter Reed.

What do you think? Tell us about it!

Are you going to the Jay-Z and Eminem show at Yankee Stadium?

The new Yankee Stadium will host its first concerts ever on Monday and Tuesday, when hip-hop artists Jay-Z and Eminem perform in their "home and home" stadium shows. The dynamic duo did two nights in Detroit's Comerica Park last week, and the concerts got great reviews.

And I really, really want to see one of the Yankee Stadium shows, but any tickets I've seen out there have been out of my price range. (I'm hoping to get lucky on StubHub at the last minute and drag Squawker Jon; I could just imagine how much he'd love the show! Or maybe somebody will have an extra ticket for me or something. You never know!)

I'm a longtime fan of Eminem, thanks to my nephew introducing me to his music, but I only got into Jay-Z last year, thanks to the Yankees, with an assist from Oprah! When Alex Rodriguez started using a Jay-Z song as his at-bat theme song, I started paying attention to his music. Then Jay-Z gave the Yankees a new theme song of their own with "Empire State of Mind." And when I saw him on Oprah, and read her interview with him in O magazine, I was really impressed with him as a person. So I've caught up on his music since then.

I wonder if there are a lot of Yankee fans of a certain age, like myself, whose main exposure to what the kids are listening to these days are at-bat theme songs! But I used to be much more aware of what was happening in music -- especially hip-hop. I was there in person in the 80s when RUN-DMC first broke through and rocked the house at the Garden with LL Cool J and Whodini. I also saw N.W.A. and Eazy-E perform live during the "Straight Outta Compton" era. Nowadays, I can't even remember the last show I saw (I think it was Springsteen, but I can't be sure!)

Anyhow, the two Jay-Z/Eminem shows at Yankee Stadium sound like they are going to be epic, between Jay-Z and Eminem performing on the same stage, and all the guest stars (the Detroit shows had Dr. Dre, 50 Cent, Drake, and Young Jeezy, among other names.) It's this year's version of The Police at Shea, when it comes to impact. I was at that concert in 1983, and I hope I get to go to one of the Jay-Z/Eminem shows this year!

What do you think? Tell  us about it!

Is Oliver Perez trying to get himself released?

Last year, the big story with the Mets was how many of them ended up in the hospital. Now the big story is which Mets failed to go to the Walter Reed Hospital to visit with injured vets. Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo at least offered explanations as to why they didn't go.

"I don't know who is creating this issue," Beltran said. "I had my own things to do, and I couldn't make it."

Beltran explained that he had a meeting involving his own charity and that he had previously visited a veterans hospital with Fred Wilpon.

Whether or not you accept Beltran's explanation probably depends on what one thinks of him in the first place. If you take him at his word, his heart is in the right place, but he didn't realize how his actions would look to management, fans and the media.

Or maybe he doesn't care. Beltran has reason to be fed up with Mets management after how they initially dealt with his injuries. And he has probably lost many of the fans for good. In the final year of Beltran's contract, expect him to be highly motivated to do well so that he can get a big new contract somewhere else.

Luis Castillo said that he missed the trip to Walter Reed because he was "squeamish." Now he knows how Met fans feel when they see his name in the lineup. If that is the real reason Castillo didn't go, then he certainly is clueless, but not necessarily someone who is not a team guy.

But if Castillo is fed up with the Mets, then he is even more clueless. Castillo probably wouldn't be on a big league roster were it not for his contract. If he has become a malcontent who thinks he should be starting, that is even more reason to get rid of him as soon as possible.

And then there's Oliver Perez. The days of Good Ollie and Bad Ollie are long gone - now there's only Bad Ollie, who didn't even try to come up with an excuse:

"I don't answer," Perez said, "anything about outside the stadium."

It's as if Perez' agent, Scott Boras, has been telling him what to say and do so that the Mets cut him loose. Knowing Boras, he thinks he can somehow parlay Perez' freedom into even more undeserved money.

Ultimately, this story comes down to the same old story for the Mets - they need to eat the contracts of Perez and Castillo. Beltran is more complicated, since he actually has a chance of regaining at least some of his skills.

But the first objective of the offseason must be to make sure that we don't have endure any more such stories about Perez and Castillo, because they will finally be gone.

Check out Squawker Lisa's take on the Mets' visit to Walter Reed in The Faster Times.

I watch one pitch -- and it's Nick Swisher's walkoff homer!

I completely forgot that the Yankees were playing in the afternoon yesterday. Then I saw something online about them losing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth inning, and I hurriedly rushed to put on the TV. I saw only one pitch. And it had a great result! Nick Swisher hit a walkoff homer, exactly one year to the day that he hit a walkoff homer to win a game for the Yanks against the Orioles the year before.

Squawker Jon actually grudgingly gave Brian Cashman credit for something today -- picking up Swisher! Jon also made a comparison between Swisher and Jeff Francoeur. Only thing is, Swisher is having another great year as a Yankee, while Francouer is, um, no longer a Met!

Oh, and how about Buck Showalter? Anybody who thinks managers don't matter ought to see what these Orioles are doing. They very nearly swept the Yankees this week, and look like a very different team than the one Jon and I saw in Baltimore this June. Too bad the Mets didn't fire Jerry Manuel, and hire Showalter!

What do you think? Tell us about it!

Contest: Win a trip to Fenway Park for Yankees-Red Sox

The site Overstock.com, a site I regularly shop at, sent us an email the other day to let our readers know about about their Ultimate Red Sox Experience contest. To me, the Ultimate Red Sox Experience is watching Jonathan Papelbon blow yet another save -- preferably against the Yankees! But Overstock has something a little different in mind. Here's the deal, from the email they sent me:

The “Ultimate Red Sox Experience” sweepstakes, created in partnership with Overstock.com and the Boston Red Sox, will give three winners all-expense-paid trips for two to see the Red Sox battle the rival New York Yankees at Boston's Fenway Park October 2nd. A grand prize winner will have the opportunity to post balls, strikes and runs on the stadium's iconic “Green Monster” scoreboard for an inning.

You can go to Overstock.com/RedSox to enter the contest. Of course, it's geared towards Red Sox fans -- many of which are regular readers of Subway Squawkers. But that doesn't mean Yankee fans can't enter. And I want to win this contest! Believe it or not, I have never been to Fenway Park, or even Boston, so this would be a cool trip to win, especially to finally see a Yankees-Red Sox game at Fenway Park! And how fun would it be for this Bombers fan to run the Sox's scoreboard for an inning!

The contest ends September 10, so hurry up and enter. When you go to the site, you can also see "webisodes" showing what happens when the VP of Red Sox Nation -- and the VP of Overstock -- switch jobs. Hilarity ensues!

John Sterling goes too far with Marcus Thames call

I was busy for most of Labor Day weekend, so I didn't get to see much of what was happening in Yankeeland (although Squawker Jon and I did watch a bunch of the Dallas Braden game when we were eating clam strips at Martell's Tiki Bar!)

But I did hear John Sterling make a horrifying call -- maybe his worst yet -- about Marcus Thames. Sterling exhorted, "Happy Thames are here again" over a Thames hit. Um, no. It's "Happy DAYS Are Here Again." So the play on words here -- using Thames as the word Times -- makes no sense. If Sterling wants to say something about "Good Thames" or something, that would be one thing. But you can't just willy-nilly throw in Thames' name in the "Happy Thames" scenario. It just sounds terrible!

Speaking of terrible, it figures that when I sit down to watch a full game last night, like I did to watch CC Sabathia go for No. 20 against the Baltimore Orioles, that CC would lose his first game at Yankee Stadium in over a year. Bummer.

What do you think? Tell us about it!

So how much will Derek Jeter get in his next contract?

There's a whole to-do in Yankeeland these days over Derek Jeter, between him having a non Jeteresque season, and what he should be paid in his new contract. I saw a lot of fans on Facebook angry over this article, which suggests that Jeter's uninspriring 2010 season (he's hitting almost 50 points lower than his career batting average) could cost him in his next deal. Lots of fans think Jeter should get paid whatever he wants, even if, according to the article, some close to him thinks he wants an A-Rod type contract:

Jeter may be the ultimate team guy, but two former teammates believe that when it comes to getting paid, his pride will demand that he get something approaching A-Rod money, regardless of what he hits this season.

Given that A-Rod makes an average of $27 million a year plus incentives now, and still has seven years left on his own ridiculous contract, does that mean Jeter should get the same? I disagree. A-Rod isn't worth that money now, and neither is Jeter.

I know that talking anything other than "Jeter is the greatest Yankee ever" is like touching the third rail in Yankeeland. But there is no way any other team would pay him anything close to those numbers. So why should the Yankees?

So how much should Jeter get? How about $20 million a year for four years as a starting point? That seems to be a number that reflects his value in Yankeedom, but doesn't tie the team up until he's 43 years old.

What do you think Jeter is worth? Tell us about it!

Will the Yankees make the playoffs? What are the odds!

This article was provided by Phillip Thomson, who is the editor of CasinoTop10.net. Thanks to him for writing his analysis of the MLB Playoff Odds. Read on to see where our friend predicts the Yankees will end up.

Current MLB Playoff Odds

As the MLB season winds down, the sports books across the world are starting to heat up. With races so tight in the AL East, NL East and NL Central, anything can happen over the course of the next 30-plus games. And that’s not even bringing the Wild Card race into it, with teams like Boston, San Francisco, Philly and the White Sox all waiting to duke it out for the berth.

Drop your fan feelings for a minute, if at all possible, and let’s take a look at how the odds makers of the world see the race shaping up in the waning months of the season.

Some may feel as if fans keep the sport alive, but that’s only half right. It’s the fans’ money. Money for tickets, money for advertising and, of course, major money spent in the betting world.

Baseball isn’t like casino blackjack game or a brand of poker. People doing the serious betting in baseball stalk the stat sheets and review rosters like religion.

Not to slag off Hold’em or even the best slots online, but everyday gamblers are nowhere near as meticulous as sports betters. To that end, these numbers are gospel and they’re followed like gnats follow a picnic basket.

American League Playoff Odds

As far as simply making the playoffs, the Tampa Bay Rays are in the driver’s seat at 92.02% to make the postseason either by way of division win or Wild Card berth (38.722% to drop off).  Because of the Rays’ ability to recapture the AL East lead from their rival New York Yankees, Tampa Bay is now favored over the Yanks to win the AL Pennant – 53.2% to 43.3%.

The Yankees are the closest to the Rays inside the division, favored at 89.1% to make the playoffs and around 47% to win the division. The Red Sox are still holding out hope but, at five games back of even the Wild Card, their postseason hopes are looking pitiful on paper – hovering at around 17.6%.

The AL Central doesn’t have quite the same heat to it. The Minnesota Twins are 86% to make the playoffs, heavily favored over the Chicago White Sox’s chances at 14.31%.

Over in the AL West, it’s the Texas Rangers’ lead to lose. Texas has a solid 8-game lead over Oakland and is sitting pretty at 96.24% to make the playoffs.

The AL Playoff picture, if the odds hold true, should shape up as such: Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Texas winning their divisions, with the Yankees earning the Wild Card berth.

For the Tampa Bay/New York race in particular, the Rays are currently 1/2 to drop off and win the Wild Card, and the Yankees are sitting at 13/10. Boston is 14:1.

National League Playoff Odds

The Atlanta Braves find that their in-division race with the Phillies is a little closer than anticipated, but for the NL playoff picture in general and not simply the NL East, the Braves are looking impressive at 91.88%. The Phillies aren’t that strong for either the division or the Wild Card, due to the other teams in the NL, and their WC odds are 17.121%, factoring in for the conceivably possible division win. The Phillies do a little better in their Pennant odds, hitting 13/4. Ironic.

The NL Central is another tight race as the season winds down. You have the Cincinnati Reds (88.43% to enter the playoffs) out in front of the St. Louis Cardinals (42.81%), and the Reds with the best odds of winning the NL Pennant at 79.29%.

It doesn’t take an expert at video poker on line to tell you that the Padres have the best chances of entering the playoffs at 95.32 percent, and also an 89% projected chance to pick up the Pennant (7:1 in betting language). The Giants are also in the hunt. They’re down but not out with a 37.49% long-odd to make the postseason.

If the odds makers know what they’re doing, we should be looking at the Braves, Reds and Padres winning their division, with the Cardinals edging out the NL Wild Card.

For the last bit of irony in the betting world: It’s actually the New York Yankees favored above all to go to and win the World Series. At 3-5:1, depending on where you look, odds makers feel as if they’re too sluggish to pull favorite over the Rays for the division title, but simply too skilled to lose in the playoffs. 

What do you think? Tell us about it!