Thursday, September 2, 2010

Will the Yankees make the playoffs? What are the odds!

This article was provided by Phillip Thomson, who is the editor of Thanks to him for writing his analysis of the MLB Playoff Odds. Read on to see where our friend predicts the Yankees will end up.
Current MLB Playoff Odds

As the MLB season winds down, the sports books across the world are starting to heat up. With races so tight in the AL East, NL East and NL Central, anything can happen over the course of the next 30-plus games. And that’s not even bringing the Wild Card race into it, with teams like Boston, San Francisco, Philly and the White Sox all waiting to duke it out for the berth.
Drop your fan feelings for a minute, if at all possible, and let’s take a look at how the odds makers of the world see the race shaping up in the waning months of the season.
Some may feel as if fans keep the sport alive, but that’s only half right. It’s the fans’ money. Money for tickets, money for advertising and, of course, major money spent in the betting world.

Baseball isn’t like casino blackjack game or a brand of poker. People doing the serious betting in baseball stalk the stat sheets and review rosters like religion.

Not to slag off Hold’em or even the best slots online, but everyday gamblers are nowhere near as meticulous as sports betters. To that end, these numbers are gospel and they’re followed like gnats follow a picnic basket.
American League Playoff Odds

As far as simply making the playoffs, the Tampa Bay Rays are in the driver’s seat at 92.02% to make the postseason either by way of division win or Wild Card berth (38.722% to drop off).  Because of the Rays’ ability to recapture the AL East lead from their rival New York Yankees, Tampa Bay is now favored over the Yanks to win the AL Pennant – 53.2% to 43.3%.

The Yankees are the closest to the Rays inside the division, favored at 89.1% to make the playoffs and around 47% to win the division. The Red Sox are still holding out hope but, at five games back of even the Wild Card, their postseason hopes are looking pitiful on paper – hovering at around 17.6%.

The AL Central doesn’t have quite the same heat to it. The Minnesota Twins are 86% to make the playoffs, heavily favored over the Chicago White Sox’s chances at 14.31%.

Over in the AL West, it’s the Texas Rangers’ lead to lose. Texas has a solid 8-game lead over Oakland and is sitting pretty at 96.24% to make the playoffs.

The AL Playoff picture, if the odds hold true, should shape up as such: Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Texas winning their divisions, with the Yankees earning the Wild Card berth.

For the Tampa Bay/New York race in particular, the Rays are currently 1/2 to drop off and win the Wild Card, and the Yankees are sitting at 13/10. Boston is 14:1.

National League Playoff Odds

The Atlanta Braves find that their in-division race with the Phillies is a little closer than anticipated, but for the NL playoff picture in general and not simply the NL East, the Braves are looking impressive at 91.88%. The Phillies aren’t that strong for either the division or the Wild Card, due to the other teams in the NL, and their WC odds are 17.121%, factoring in for the conceivably possible division win. The Phillies do a little better in their Pennant odds, hitting 13/4. Ironic.

The NL Central is another tight race as the season winds down. You have the Cincinnati Reds (88.43% to enter the playoffs) out in front of the St. Louis Cardinals (42.81%), and the Reds with the best odds of winning the NL Pennant at 79.29%.

It doesn’t take an expert at video poker on line to tell you that the Padres have the best chances of entering the playoffs at 95.32 percent, and also an 89% projected chance to pick up the Pennant (7:1 in betting language). The Giants are also in the hunt. They’re down but not out with a 37.49% long-odd to make the postseason.

If the odds makers know what they’re doing, we should be looking at the Braves, Reds and Padres winning their division, with the Cardinals edging out the NL Wild Card.

For the last bit of irony in the betting world: It’s actually the New York Yankees favored above all to go to and win the World Series. At 3-5:1, depending on where you look, odds makers feel as if they’re too sluggish to pull favorite over the Rays for the division title, but simply too skilled to lose in the playoffs. 

What do you think? Tell us about it!

1 comment:

nutballgazette said...

First the Red Sox are 7 games behind the Rays for the WC, I do give the Sox a chance because their starting pitching is capable of going on a hot streak, But they will not catch the Rays because of the Rays Piching, The Yankees however is another story, WE only can really rely on CC, The other starters are just so-so and if Pettitte does not come back the Yankees could lose 15 of 20 games and all the Red Sox would have to do is go 14 and 6 to catch up, That could happen, Will it, I do not think so. I think the Yankees Hitting will keep losing streaks to a minimum.

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