Monday, April 19, 2010

Why Ike Davis will help the Mets immediately

If Ike Davis turns out to be a star, it probably won't happen from day one. But even if Davis struggles after joining the Mets, he has three big things in his favor:

He's not Mike Jacobs.

He's not Fernando Tatis.

He's not Frank Catalanotto.

According to Baseball Reference, Met first basemen so far this year are hitting .167 in 48 at bats with one homer, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored. That means that they have been involved in creating four runs (the homer created both a run scored and an RBI).

That's barely better than the Mets' pitcher spot, which has 2 RBI and 1 run scored.

Jason Bay is having a miserable year, but even he has been involved in creating 10 runs (2 RBI, 8 runs scored) .

If the Mets 1B spot was involved in 10 runs instead of 4, the Mets might have six more runs on the year, or an average of an extra half a run over their 12 games.

Currently, the Mets are 15th or next to last in the NL in runs scored with 48. (The awful Astros have only 28 runs.) The Padres and Cardinals are tied for 10th with 55 runs scored. So an extra six runs would have moved the Mets toward the middle of the pack.

But what if Davis really struggles, the way Fernando Martinez did last year? Last year's phenom hit only .176 in 91 at bats with 1 homer, 8 RBI and 11 runs scored.

However, as bad as Martinez' numbers were, he still was involved in creating 18 runs. Martinez had almost twice as many AB as this year's first basemen, so cut that total in half and you still have nine runs, as compared to the 1B slot's four.

In other words, no matter how Davis does, the first basemen so far have set the bar so low that it is bound to be a big improvement.


Rob said...

This kid could really make an impact right away even if he only provides a defensive upgrade. Although I think an .800 OPS is realistic.

Flushing Baseball Daily

Schruender said...

For once New Yorkers have reason to show patience to a player.

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