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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Mets 2009 midseason report: Reversal of fortune

"Reversal of fortune" is a term used in competitive eating contests to describe when food shoved into your mouth starts coming back up. I suspect most Met fans have had a similar experience while watching Met games this year.

"Reversal of Fortune" is also the title of a 1990 movie that explores the debate over how a 48-year-old ended up brain dead.

2009 is the Mets' 48th season.

Last year, as well as in 2007, the National League wild card team had 90 wins. For the Mets to end up with 90 wins in 2009, they will need to go 48-27 the rest of the way. That would be a winning percentage of .640.

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 56-32, with a winning percentage of .636.

So all the Mets need to do to be in a position to make the playoffs is to play at the Dodgers' level the rest of the season.

If the Mets were at full strength, it would at least be a possibility. Last year, after Jerry Manuel took over, the Mets went 55-38, for a winning percentage of .591.

But this year's team is not near full strength. It is unclear whether it will ever be at full strength.

So let's not talk about how anything can happen, and that if the Mets can blow a 6 1/2 game lead in September, so can the Phillies. The Phillies might blow the lead, but that will only open the door for the Marlins or Braves.

The Mets are not making the playoffs this year.

There are still plenty of questions to be answered that will make it worthwhile to watch games this season. In fact, pretty much every Met is a question mark of some sort, right up to Johan Santana's decreased velocity and David Wright's decreased power. Is Daniel Murphy the answer at first base? Can Jeff Francoeur regain his 2006 form? Will Oliver Perez... well, whatever he does the rest of the way, there will always be questions about Ollie.

On July 31, 2004, the Mets were in even worse shape than they are now. They were in fourth place (same as now), eight games out (compared to 6 1/2 now). They were five games under .500 (compared to 3 now).

But that year, the Mets still thought they were in contention. So much so that they traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.

2009 has already a been a pretty bad year. Let's hope it does not get any worse.

2 comments:

jorgesaysno said...

It's funny, I feel like having a reversal of fortune after watching the Mets play....

Uncle Mike said...

Considering some of these Mets, how vain they are and how much money they make, a better movie title (though hardly a better movie) would be "The Bonfire of the Vanities." That one actually took place during the Mets' glory years (if you can count one Pennant as "glory years"), even if some of the action was at the Bronx County Courhouse, within sight of Yankee Stadium.

Then, of course, there was the "time travel" film "Frequency," which used the 1969 World Series as a major plot point. But then, Met World Series do not happen with much frequency.